"Democracy: The Road to Peace" hosted jointly by the Missions to Costa Rica and Qatar to the EU

Speech delivered on Wed 23rd Nov 2005

The current state of democracy

• Democracy is perhaps the most powerful energising idea of the 20th Century.

• There are few states in the world today that don't call themselves democratic.

• The Soviet Union and its East European dependencies called themselves 'people's democracies', as communist China continues to do.

• Virtually the only countries that are explicitly non-democratic are the last remaining semi-feudal states like Saudi Arabia - and even these are hardly untouched by democratic currents.

The spread of democracy

• Since the mid-1970s, the number of democratic governments in the world has more than doubled.

• In 2000 electoral democracies existed in 120 out of 194 countries.

• Now the number of people living in democratic states stands at 58.2 percent of the world's population - that's more than half the world - compared to 31% in 1950.

• In December they will be joined by Iraq, as it votes in its first ever democratically elected government.

Where has democracy spread?

• Recent democratisation began in Mediterranean Europe, with the overthrow of the military regimes in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

• In the early 1980s democracy spread to a second group of countries in South and Central America. Some twelve countries established or re-established democratic government, including Brazil, Peru and Argentina.

• This was followed by the transition to democracy post 1989 throughout Eastern Europe, and parts of the ex Soviet Union and Africa.

• In Asia, despite some problems and reversals, democratisation has been going on since the early 1970s - in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand and Mongolia. India has remained a democratic state since its independence in 1947.

• The only parts of the world which have not experienced mass democratisation are the Middle East and parts of Africa and Latin America.

What is the theory that democracy promotes peace?

• The democratic peace theory holds that democracies—specifically, liberal democracies—never or almost never go to war with one another.

• A more general definition is that systematic violence is rare in and by democracies.

What is it based on?

It is based on evidence which suggests that:

• Democracies do not make war on each other.

• Democracies exhibit fewer acts of external aggression.

• Democracies have, by far, the least internal violence.

• Modern democracies have suffered virtually no democide (genocide and governmental murder)

History of the Theory Pre-WWII

• The most often cited classical source of the idea is Immanuel Kant's 1795 essay, "Perpetual Peace", although it offers several preconditions to peace.

• US President Woodrow Wilson advocated the view that peace depends above all on promoting democratic institutions during and after WWI.

Modern Development of the Theory

• In 1964, Dean Babst was the first to cite statistical evidence showing that no two democracies had ever been at war with each other.

• In 1979 Rudolph Joseph Rummel (Professor Emeritus of political science at the University of Hawaii) analysed 353 wars since 1816 and revealed that:

o very few have been waged between democracies, and

o none have been waged between liberal democracies.

• He defines a "liberal democracy" as a nation which has universal franchise, free speech, and free press all enshrined in their bodies of law.

• Presidents from both American parties have expressed support for Rummel's theory throughout the last twenty years, including Clinton and George W Bush.

o Bill Clinton: "Ultimately, the best strategy to ensure our security and to build a durable peace is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere. Democracies don't attack each other."

Political Use of the Theory

• Democratic peace theory is used as an argument for peaceful democratisation. What we now call 'Regime Change Europe's Way', as seen during the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, where the West gave vocal and monetary support to internal democratic movements.

• It has also been used (somewhat hypocritically) for military intervention which imposes forced democratisation. Margaret Thatcher quoted it to justify the Falklands War and George Bush/Tony Blair to justify the Iraq war.

• Western support for democratisation is almost always associated with support for the free market. Some theorists believe that the free market is a second precondition which will ultimately ensure the transition to democracy in countries such as China.

Criticisms of the Theory

• Because democratic peace theory has sometimes been used to justify aggression opponents have judged it pro-western and pro-imperialist, based on the superiority of western values.

• Whereas Liberals believe that Democracy and the Free Market have the potential to improve peoples' lives, wherever they may live, and whatever their social and cultural beliefs.

• We must take care to ensure that the current War Against Terror and the 'Axis of Evil' are not permitted to blacken the name of democracy by aligning it with Western aggression.

• The US, in particular, cannot abuse human rights and the rule of law and then expect others to believe in them as exportable ideals.

The Road to Democracy in Qatar

• Qatar is a staunch ally of the US, which has been trying to promote political, economic and social reforms throughout the Arab world.

• The Qatari capital Doha hosted the coalition headquarters during the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

• The Emir of Qatar has advocated greater political openness since he deposed his father in 1995.

1999

• Municipal elections, the first democratic polls since 1971, marked the start of a democratisation programme.

• Women were allowed to vote and stand for office.

2003

• Voters overwhelmingly approved a new constitution guaranteeing freedom of expression, assembly, and religion.

• The constitution provides for a 45-member advisory body, of which two-thirds of members are directly elected.

• The constitution leaves ultimate power in the hands of the emir.

• Qatar appointed its first woman cabinet minister, Sheikha bint Ahmed al-Mahmoud, and also set up a human rights committee.

2004

• Legislation enacted to allow the formation of Trade Unions and the right to Strike Action.

• The law bans under-16s from working, sets an eight-hour working day and declares equal rights for women.

June 2005

• Qatar's first written constitution came into effect.

How does this affect the Middle East as a whole?

• It can be argued that Qatar's programme of democratisation has inspired other nations to follow in its footsteps. Kuwait, for example, allowed women political rights in May 2005 - after being blocked for six years by tribal and Islamist members of the National Assembly.

• It can further be argued that democratisation has led to diminished conflict. In March 2001 Qatar settled long-running border disputes with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

For more information on democracy in the Middle East see the BBC summary provided.

Democracy in Costa Rica

• Outside Europe, North America and Australasia, there have only been a small number of long-standing democracies. These include Costa Rica, which has been a democracy since the late nineteenth century.

• As far back as 1949 a new constitution gave women and people of African descent the right to vote.

• For decades Costa Rica has stood out for its relative stability and has benefited from the most developed welfare system in the region.

• It has no standing army, and its citizens enjoy one of the highest life expectancy levels in the Western hemisphere and higher living standards than their war-torn neighbours.

• Costa Rica is surrounded by what the US describes as failing states including Ecuador and Haiti.

Democracy in Latin America

• Nearly all Latin American countries have moved from dictatorship to democracy over the last three decades - but elected governments have still been liable to fall or be overthrown.

• In June 2005 the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called for the Organization of American States to do more to promote democracy.

• She also appealed for the OAS to advance democracy where it was absent - a reference to Communist Cuba. Cuba was suspended from the OAS in 1961, two years after President Fidel Castro came to power.

• Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has accused the United States of seeking to impose a "global dictatorship". "If there is any government that should be monitored by the OAS, then it should be the US government," he added.

• His views reflect criticisms of the Democratic Peace theory that democracy is a cover for Western Imperialism.

The Impact of Free Trade

• A Central American free trade agreement called CAFTA was signed in 2004 by 5 countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic.

• Cafta aims to help ease poverty, foster development and strengthen democracy in the region.

• George Bush has argued the agreement "provides a strong boost for young democracies whose success is important for America's national security and for reducing illegal immigration".

• Others say it does nothing to protect workers and that US protectionism stifles trade in any case.